When Will Commercial Flights Resume in Ukraine?

When people ask when commercial flights will resume in Ukraine, they are usually looking for a date. But in aviation, dates are rarely the answer. What determines the return of civil aviation is not political optimism or infrastructure readiness — it is a combination of risk thresholds, insurance mechanisms, regulatory compliance, and international confidence. Understanding these factors is essential to understanding why aviation does not return simply because a runway exists.

Aviation Is Not Infrastructure Alone

As of 2022, Ukraine’s civil airspace has been fully closed to commercial traffic under NOTAM restrictions due to security risks. Despite this, much of the country’s aviation infrastructure — including runways, terminals, and air navigation systems — remains technically serviceable or repairable.

However, aviation is governed by risk acceptance, not construction status. According to ICAO standards, the reopening of airspace requires not only physical infrastructure but demonstrable control over threats to aircraft, passengers, and third parties on the ground. This includes missile risk, air defense activity, and unpredictable military operations — factors that cannot be mitigated by airports alone.

Insurance: The Invisible Gatekeeper

One of the most underestimated barriers to reopening flights is aviation insurance.

Commercial airlines cannot operate without hull and liability insurance. Since February 2022, war-risk insurance premiums for Ukraine have effectively become prohibitive or unavailable. According to data from the global aviation insurance market, war-risk premiums for conflict zones can exceed 5–10% of an aircraft’s insured value per flight, compared to less than 0.1% in stable regions.

For a narrow-body aircraft valued at USD 50–60 million, this would mean millions of dollars per month in additional costs — making scheduled commercial service economically impossible without state-backed guarantees.

This is why in historical precedents — including Israel during escalations, Iraq post-2003, and Bosnia after the 1990s war — flights resumed only after government indemnification schemes were introduced to cover war risks.

Global Precedents: What History Tells Us

There are no exact parallels to Ukraine’s situation, but aviation history offers useful benchmarks.

• Bosnia and Herzegovina: Commercial flights resumed approximately 18 months after active hostilities ended, following international security guarantees and phased airspace reopening.
• Iraq: Partial civil aviation resumed under strict corridors and coalition-backed risk mitigation, with limited carriers and high insurance costs.
• Israel: Even during active conflicts, flights continue due to a unique combination of layered air defense, state insurance guarantees, and long-standing risk models accepted by insurers.

The key lesson is clear: aviation returns when risk becomes insurable, not when infrastructure is repaired.

ICAO, EASA, and Airspace Confidence

For Ukraine, reopening commercial flights will require alignment with multiple international stakeholders:

• ICAO, regarding airspace safety assessments and state oversight;
• EASA, for European carriers and regulatory harmonization;
• Airlines and lessors, who must accept residual risks;
• Insurers and reinsurers, who ultimately decide whether aircraft can fly.

This process is inherently conservative. Aviation safety operates on a principle of predictability, and conflict zones — even stabilized ones — challenge that principle.

Scenarios for the Return of Flights

Rather than asking when, a more useful question is how flights could return. Analysts typically consider three realistic scenarios:

1. Post-War Full Reopening
The most straightforward scenario, requiring a sustained cessation of hostilities, international security guarantees, and re-entry of insurers into the market. This mirrors Bosnia’s path but could take 12–24 months after the end of active conflict.

2. Limited Phased Reopening
Restricted flights from specific airports under tightly controlled corridors, potentially supported by state-backed insurance pools. This would likely involve cargo, humanitarian, or government flights before commercial passenger services.

3. Regional or Experimental Operations
Highly limited operations by select carriers under bespoke risk frameworks. Historically rare and economically fragile, this option would be symbolic rather than transformative.

Why Dates Are Misleading

Public discourse often focuses on “next year” or “after the war,” but aviation does not operate on political timelines. Each of the following must converge:

• demonstrable reduction in airspace risk;
• viable insurance solutions;
• regulatory approval from international bodies;
• commercial willingness from airlines.

Until all four align, announcing dates creates false expectations.

Mobility Is Strategy, Not Transport

The return of aviation in Ukraine is not just about mobility — it is about state credibility, economic reintegration, and international trust. Airspace is a strategic signal. When it reopens, it will mean that Ukraine has crossed a threshold recognized not only domestically, but globally.

In that sense, the question is not when flights resume, but when the conditions for trust are restored. Aviation will follow.